Australia’s Agricultural Exports Hold Strong Amid Global Pressures

Introduction: Australia’s agricultural sector continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience despite global uncertainties.
According to the latest ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report, agricultural export values are projected to reach
AU$71.7 billion in 2025–26, just 3% below last year’s record highs.
This performance highlights Australia’s ability to maintain its competitive edge in the face of economic slowdowns,
shifting trade dynamics, and climatic challenges.

Export Highlights:

• Beef and Livestock Dominate: Livestock and related products are expected to contribute
  AU$40 billion to export earnings, showing the strength of Australia’s premium protein exports.
• Red Meat Exports Surge: Forecasts indicate red meat exports will reach
  AU$22 billion in 2025–26, supported by strong volumes and favorable international pricing,
  particularly in the United States.
• Record Beef Export Volumes: In April 2025, exports hit
  127,172 tonnes—a 21% year-on-year increase.
  Shipments to the U.S. rose by 37%, Canada by 40%, and
  China by an impressive 62%.
• U.S. Demand Holds Despite Tariffs: Even with a 10% tariff,
  July 2025 beef exports to the U.S. jumped 12%, while overall shipments to North America grew by 30%.

Structural and Historical Context: Agriculture remains deeply export-oriented, with around
70% of production destined for overseas markets. Over the past two decades,
real agricultural output has grown by 34%, increasing from AU$61.5 billion in 2004–05
to AU$82.4 billion in 2023–24. Key export categories such as
grains, oilseeds, pulses, horticulture, and livestock have consistently driven this upward trend.

Challenges and Pressures:

• Global Growth & Lower Prices: Sluggish global economic conditions are expected to put
  downward pressure on prices for dairy, meat, wool, and processed goods,
  even though export volumes remain strong.
• Wheat Surplus from Weak Chinese Demand: Exports to China fell sharply,
  from 4.4 million tonnes in 2022/23 to only 546,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
  This has created a surplus of 5–8 million tonnes, raising concerns about domestic storage and
  international price competition.
• Geopolitical & Trade Risks: Shifts in U.S. tariffs and global protectionist
  measures pose uncertainty for long-term trading relationships.

Strategic Responses and Opportunities:

• Technology and Sustainability: Australian producers are embracing
  AI forecasting, renewable energy, and premium branding strategies to strengthen resilience
  and competitiveness in global markets.
• Policy and Trade Diversification: The government is actively expanding access to new
  markets—reopening lobster exports to China, re-establishing apple trade, and
  enhancing links with the Middle East, UK, EU, and Indonesia.
• Resilient Regional Development: Regional innovation hubs are driving growth,
  ensuring Australia maintains its role as a global agricultural leader.

Conclusion: Despite global headwinds—from demand fluctuations to trade risks—Australia’s
agricultural export sector remains a pillar of national economic strength. Strategic innovation,
market diversification, and sustainability initiatives are enabling Australia not just to weather
global pressures but to position itself as a forward-looking leader in agricultural trade.
The story of Australia’s agricultural exports is one of resilience, adaptability, and opportunity
in a shifting global landscape.